2016 bellwether countiesbest freshman dorm at coastal carolina

It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. Not anymore. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Demographics (84) This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. It's the wrong question. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. First, what are bellwether counties? Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org (The highest value being again 66.1%). Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Seriously. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". "It wasn't part of his strategy.". A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Outstanding. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. TIP: Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. It is easy to gloss over this. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Their emotions and decision making process are real. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. That report was issued on Nov. 12. (subject to censorship). What, if anything, did we miss? Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. 6. Sumter County, . To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. . If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Watauga has gone for. 2023 BBC. All rights reserved. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Will they vote for the winner in 2016? . [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. (i.e. In their . Not a bad streak. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. ET. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate.

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